Election latest: Reform UK overtakes Tories for first time in new poll (2024)

By Jon Craig, chief political correspondent

The opening statements in the ITV leaders' debate may have been extremely brief, but they spoke volumes.

Predictably, Nigel Farage wasted no time in gloating about the shock opinion poll minutes before the start which put Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives.

"We are now the opposition to Labour," he declared, in a boast that he has been wanting to trumpet at full volume for weeks as support for his party has risen gradually during the campaign.

And Penny Mordaunt served notice that she will go on the attack against Labour on tax in the debate, claiming she'll talk about the Tories cutting taxes and Labour raising them.

Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

A shock poll showing Nigel Farage's Reform UK has overtaken the Conservatives has lit the blue touch paper under the latest TV election debate.

The poll, by YouGov, suggests support for Reform is now 19%, up two points and a point above the Tories on 18%.

It's a record high for Mr Farage’s party and the first time it has overtaken the Conservatives.

And the provocative Mr Farage now has the perfect platform, with a 90-minute TV debate, to gloat about his party's dramatic breakthrough and launch a new onslaught on the beleaguered Tories.

The debate comes just hours after the launch of the Labour manifesto in Manchester, and it is deputy leader Angela Rayner who will be the party's standard-bearer in the seven-way debate, for the second time in this election campaign.

Speaking minutes before the debate gets under way, Ms Rayner said: "I'm about to take the stage and debate Penny Mordaunt, Nigel Farage and co.

"Today of all days, when we released our manifesto, I'm proud to be able to take the stage and represent our party to deliver our message of change.

"The truth is, everyone I'm up against tonight wants to see Labour falter. But I'm well up for it."

The other four leading politicians taking part in an ITV election debate in Salford are the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, the Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper, the Green Party's co-leader Carla Denyer and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth.

And while Mr Farage will be jubilant, it will fall to Commons leader Ms Mordaunt to lift Tory morale after a poll that will be seen as a huge turning point in the election campaign and a crushing blow to the Tories' hopes of re-election.

Ms Mordaunt is likely to reinforce the Conservatives' claim that a vote for Reform UK will help Sir Keir Starmer become prime minister, but it's a warning that so far has not been heeded by wavering Tory supporters switching to Reform UK in large numbers.

Reform UK has overtaken the Conservative Party for the first time in a new YouGov poll for The Times.

It puts Nigel Farage's party on 19%, ahead of the Conservatives on 18%.

The poll was carried out after Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched the Conservative manifesto earlier this week.

It shows Reform up two points, with Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens all down one.

• Labour: 37% (-1)
• Reform: 19% (+2)
• Conservatives: 18% (nc)
• Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
• Green Party: 7% (-1)
• SNP: 3% (+1)
• Plaid Cymru: 1% (nc)
• Other: 2% (+1)

The voting intention survey was done on Wednesday and Thursday, with 2,221 people taking part.

Will Jennings, Sky polling analyst, said the poll "represents a moment of huge danger to the Conservatives".

"Because of the geography of their support, Reform are not projected to win many seats, but they could still cost the Conservatives wins in narrowly contested seats across the country," he said.

"In many places this will make the difference between a constituency returning a Conservative or Labour MP."

Former cabinet secretarySir David Davis is now being asked whether - as the son of a single mum and someone raised on a council estate - he considers it a problem that the leader of the Conservative Party struggles to talk about sacrifice and hardship.

"Not everybodywho leads the country has to come from a council estate," he says.

He says Lord Cameron "plainly" came from a privileged background and "he got returned by a large, large majority".

Rishi Sunak listed not having Sky TV earlier this week as one of the sacrifices his parents made when raising him.

Defending the comment, Sir David said people are far more concerned about how well he runs the country and whether he has brought inflation down.

He says these "serious questions" are far more important to people than what he calls the "gossip column of television".

That brings our coverage of tonight's Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge to an end, but the show will be back tomorrow with Ali Fortescue.

Stick with us here for more news and analysis through the evening.

Next up on Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge is former Brexit secretary Sir David Davis.

Asked if the polls suggest it's all over for the Conservative campaign, Sir David says: "No, certainly not on the basis of what I'm seeing on the doorstep".

He says there's an error margin of 6% to 20% between the polls and the election outcome.

"What I'm seeing on the doorstep is people are beginning to focus… on the substantive issues for themselves."

The big issue for the public this week is tax, he says, following what he calls a "tax-cuttingTory manifesto and a Labour manifesto which tried to avoid the issue, but has been described by the IFS (Institute for Fiscal Studies) as tax raising" (we've more on this in our 15:18 post).

Sir David says people he's spoken are also "starting to look past all the shenanigans with [Nigel] Farage" and are voting Tory instead of "helping Labour" with a vote for Reform.

Opposition 'is really hard'

With this being his 11th general election, he knows what it's like for the Tories to end up in opposition.

"It's really hard… it's difficult, certainly in the early years. It's very difficult to score any points," Sir David says.

"I quite enjoy opposition because I'm quite good at it. I'm an opposition MP in some ways. But truth be told, for most of the Conservative Party, it's a grim thing to do if that's where we end up."

Plaid Cymru joined Labour in releasing their election manifesto today.

As ever, we've scoured their policy pledges, so you don't have to.

And it's not all about advocating for Welsh independence…

Scroll to the right in the interactive tool below to find out what the party has promised to do if they win the election.

We will produce a breakdown of all the other parties' manifestos here when they are announced - you can find the ones we've done so far in the key points above.

Labour shadow minister Lisa Nandy is now being challenged on comments made by Sir Keir Starmer in Sky's leaders' event last night in which he claimed he was "certain" his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn was going to lose the 2019 election.

Sophy Ridge asks Ms Nandy: "Did you not think he was going to win either?"

"We all made different choices at what was a really difficult time for the Labour Party," Ms Nandy, who served in Mr Corbyn's shadow cabinet alongside Sir Keir, replies.

"We were all trying to serve the country as best as we possibly could.

"All I would say to you is judge Keir Starmer by his actions."

Sky'spolitical editorBeth Rigbychallenged Sir Keir last night on his support for Mr Corbyn in 2017 and 2019, and his subsequent attempts to distance the party from his predecessor.

Responding to Sir Keir's comments, Mr Corbyn accused him of "rewriting history", saying it was "sad" (see post at 18.35pm).

First up on the show is Labour shadow minister Lisa Nandy.

Presented with analysis by oureconomics and data editorEd Conwaythat under its manifesto, Labour would preside over the highest tax burden in history, she says: "We don't accept that."

Ms Nandy calls the suggestion "misleading" and says Labour is making "fairer decisions on tax".

You can watch Ed's analysis below:

Tax attacks 'rich' coming from Tories

Ms Nandy added that it was also "rich" for the Conservatives "to be accusing Labour of making life harder for people".

Pressed on whether it's true the country would endure the highest tax burden in history under Labour, Ms Nandy says that would assume the party continues "with 14 years of Conservative failure".

"Labour does not intend to do that for one moment," she says.

Labour coy on growth target

The shadow minister said her party wouldn't "make promises that we can't keep" but insisted that its manifesto is "fully-costed and fully-funded".

Sophy questions Ms Nandy on a warning from the Institute for Fiscal Studies today that the three main parties are involved in a "conspiracy of silence" with the public over the difficulties they could face.

She questions whether Labour is being "deliberately evasive" about the public finances.

Ms Nandy denies this and says Labour simply "don't accept that we should have such low ambitions for our economy".

But she evades a question on what growth target Labour is working towards, only saying they want the highest in the G7.

Police are responding to a report of a suspicious package at a premises in Madeira Avenue, Horsham.

Horsham police have confirmed it is the West Sussex constituency office of Conservative candidate and former paymaster general Sir Jeremy Quin.

Police and an explosive ordnance disposal team are currently at the scene.

In a statement, Sir Jeremy said specialists were called in after the receipt of a suspicious parcel at his Horsham office earlier today.

He said it is still under investigation, but there is "no cause for alarm".

"It's a huge privilege to engage in public service, but sadly in the world in which we live incidents of this nature always have to be taken seriously," he said.

As Sophy outlined, we're opening tonight's programme with Labour's manifesto, which launched this morning.

Sir Keir Starmer outlined his vision for the country, though all of the various pledges - from setting up a state-owned energy company to lowering the voting age to 16 - had been revealed before.

You can swipe through them below:

But how about costings? It's a key part of assessing any party's plans for government ahead of an election.

And who better to do it than our economics and data editor Ed Conway, whose analysis you can watch here: